Mathematics

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50 mins

Teacher/Student led

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Learning Outcomes

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+95 XP

Teacher-led from the board. Pupils do not need a device, but can follow on one.

What you need:
IWB/Projector/Large Screen
Dice
Coin

Chance: Likely, Unlikely, Certain, Impossible

Discover where everyday events sit on the certain-to-impossible scale. Investigate fair and unfair spinners, sort real-world examples, and learn why chance takes time to even out.

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1 Getting Started
2 Watch and Notice
3 Sort the Events in Your Copy
4 Try It Together
5 Class Challenge
6 What Did We Notice?
7 Showing a 4
8 What's Next
Pupil practice

Your turn

Your teacher is running this lesson on the board. Here is the part you can try yourself.

Your written work is on page 94

Spinner

1 - Getting Started ~4 mins

Illustration for Getting Started Hands up: if I roll this die once, how sure are you that a 6 comes up? Would you bet your break-time snack on it?

Key point

Some things always happen. Some never happen. Most things sit somewhere in between. Today we sort them.

👇 Mark your steps as done as you complete them.

+5 XP

2 - Watch and Notice ~9 mins

Look at each one on the board. As the die is rolled again and again, watch the bars for each face grow. If the die is fair, no single face runs away with the game.

Now a spinner with four equal parts. Every part is the same size, so landing on any one is equally likely.

Last, a spinner with one giant part. Is that a fair spinner? Watch where it wants to land.

👇 Mark your steps as done as you complete them.

+10 XP

3 - Sort the Events in Your Copy ~3 mins

COPYBOOK MOMENT

In your maths copy, write each of these events on its own line. Beside each one, mark it with a letter: C for certain, L for likely, U for unlikely, or I for impossible. Underline any you were unsure about.

The sun will rise tomorrow.
I will roll a 7 on this die.
It will rain somewhere in Ireland this week.
A tossed coin will land on heads.
Our whole class will grow wings by home time.
The next car past the gate will be red.

+10 XP

4 - Try It Together ~10 mins

Key point

Today we explore an unfair spinner. Half of it is red. A quarter is blue. A quarter is green.

We'll spin it many times and watch which colour grows the tallest bar. Before each run, say aloud which colour you think will win most.

Which colour wins most?

+15 XP

Pupil practice

Module 7 · Data, Chance and the Co-ordinate Plane Data & Chance

Lesson 100 · Chance: Likely, Unlikely, Certain, Impossible

Download Activity Book page (PDF)

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